Climate breakdown shows need for new EU environmental strategy

 

After the failure in Copenhagen, many must consider what went wrong. Europe needs to rethink its international environmental strategy.

The European Union can look back at a number of green success stories. Working together with developing nations, Europe played an important role at the Rio Conference in 1992, for the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 and for progress in other fields, such as control of dangerous waste under the Basel Convention and the Biosafety Protocol under the Convention on Biodiversity.

But in Copenhagen, European leaders were sidelined by the US, China, India, Brazil and South Africa. When the deal between Barack Obama and the emerging economies was done, the European Union faced the choice either to agree or to be accused of stopping an agreement in Copenhagen. The press conference where José Manuel Barroso and Fredrik Reinfeldt were going to present the European view was delayed for more than two hours – a sign that discussions among EU Heads of Government were not easy.

José Manuel Barroso and Fredrik Reinfeldt at the Climate Summit. Photo: Gunnar Seijbold/Government Offices

Already before EU co-ordination started, Nicolas Sarkozy said that the deal was done. Once again, the big EU countries acted on their own, making the role of the rotating Presidency difficult.

The Swedish Presidency´s disappointment over the Copenhagen Summit was obvious.

Major fiasco, complete mess, totally inadequate, massive disappointment are words that spring to mind twittered Gunnar Caperius, adviser to the Minister for Environment.

The Minister himself, Andreas Carlgren, wrote on his blog under the title `Disappointed over the Copenhagen outcome´: What happened at the climate conference is really not what I and the EU have worked so incredibly hard for…Yesterday the USA, China, India, Brazil and South Africa made a deal on their own.

Of course, the responsibility rests with many players, mainly the US and China. But the Swedish EU Presidency was too weak, with clear divisions between Andreas Carlgren and Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt.

What lesson can the European Union learn from the climate fiasco?

First, the world has changed. China is flexing its economic muscles more than before. India, Indonesia, Brazil and South Africa are taking a self-confident role on the global scene. The European Union must have a more coherent foreign policy in relations to such countries, not allowing them to divide Member States (as Russia has done on energy policy).

Second, Europe must build stronger alliances with poor countries. During the climate negotiations, Sweden as EU Chair categorically refused to discuss new commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. This attitude provoked many developing countries, and in the end the European Union had to revise its position. Now, EU leaders, and the new High Representative Catherine Ashton, must find ways to increase trust among the poor countries.

Third, environment cannot any longer be seen isolated from trade and development policy. The refusal by China and India to move forward on binding climate commitments will certainly increase calls for border tax adjustments and other restrictive trade measures. That is a dangerous route.

The EU should instead use the review of the Common Agricultural Policy and the negotiations on the next long-term budget to reduce trade barriers and subsidies, and use this leverage to convince major partners to move forward on climate.

The Swedish Presidency: Effective but not Exciting

 

It is too early yet to make a final assessment of the Swedish EU Presidency. Negotiating a climate treaty in Copenhagen is the most important goal for Fredrik Reinfeldt and his colleagues. At the end of the week we will know if this aim was achieved.

However, it is possible to summarize progress so far in other fields.

As others have noted, it has been a low-profile but effective Presidency. Sweden moved issues forward that were already on the agenda. One contributing factor has been the many skilled civil servants and diplomats in the Swedish administration.

After Ireland´s yes-vote, Fredrik Reinfeldt was successful in convincing Vaclav Klaus to sign the Lisbon Treaty. That was an important achievement, allowing the new Treaty to enter into force on 1 December. It paved the way for the appointment of Herman Van Rompuy and Catherine Ashton to the two new top positions in the EU.

Fredrik Reinfeldt´s leadership has been compared to a Volvo diesel, running at an even speed in a reliable way. In some areas, however, it would have been better with a modern eco-car with more acceleration.

It is hard to find many areas where Sweden really pushed the European agenda forward during these six months. Yes, an EU presidency should act in the interest of the whole Union, but it had been possible to take more initiatives during 2007 and 2008 that had been mature for decisions this autumn.

Environment is a case in point. The Swedish government was late in its proposals regarding the EU Sustainability Strategy review, and has taken few initiatives in areas such as chemicals, waste and biological diversity. The talk about `eco-efficiency´ did not lead to concrete decisions.

In some areas the reasons are ideological.

The centre-right government in Stockholm did not want to review the controversial directive on posting of workers, after a heated debate in Sweden regarding the Laval case. The conclusions at the December Summit on the post-Lisbon strategy do not contain much on good working conditions, gender equality or anti-discrimination, but these issues were never a real political priority for Reinfeldt´s Presidency.  

It is harder to understand the lack of initiative in areas such as environment or consumer protection where political parties in Sweden´s coalition government have traditionally had strong views.

Of course, there are exceptions.

Enlargement is perhaps the most important success story of the Presidency. Carl Bildt and his skilled collaborators played an important role behind the scenes to break the impasse in Croatia´s membership negotiations. There was also progress for Serbia and other parts of ex-Yugoslavia. Iceland started its route towards membership.

Carl Bildt also secured agreement on the European External Action Service. The Swedish Foreign Ministry did more to prevent a new Georgia crisis this summer than is publicly known, and managed (at least so far) to hold the EU together on Iran.

Justice Minister Beatrice Ask convinced her colleagues about a new Stockholm Programme with more focus on fundamental rights than before (her colleague Tobias Billström, however, was not able to change the repressive character of migration policy in Europe).

Health Minister Maria Larsson tried to hold the EU together in its response to swine flu and moved the issue of better antibiotics forward – an underestimated policy area.

But more often than not, Sweden followed the will of the big EU countries, for example on the appointment of Herman Van Rompuy and Catherine Ashton.

At a remarkable event, France met with 21 other countries to discuss the future of agricultural policy, excluding Britain and Sweden – a clear provocation to the EU Presidency. The deal on financial supervision allowed the UK to retain national control over its financial sector, while the Swedish government watered down proposals on the regulation of alternative investment funds.

The Swedish Presidency was much better than the Czech, but it was in some ways also an opportunity lost.

Now in Copenhagen, the EU position is to abandon the Kyoto protocol without having a new binding treaty to put in its place.

That is not very promising for the final assessment of the Presidency.

A Green World Power – But For How Long?

 

Finally, the Copenhagen Climate Summit starts. Reaching an agreement at the conference is `a very big and important task´ for the Swedish EU Presidency, Fredrik Reinfeldt stated in July. Now it is clear that Copenhagen will not produce a binding agreement, a setback for Reinfeldt´s ambitions.

Without doubt, the European Union has played a leading role in global climate negotiations, saving the Kyoto Protocol and setting the most ambitious emission targets among major economies.

European leverage in Copenhagen depends on how governments solve outstanding issues. There is still no bid from the EU on financial aid to developing countries, although Reinfeldt claimed so after the European Council in October. Sweden is now trying to get pledges from as many EU governments as possible.

Green Ministers. Denmark´s Connie Hedegaard and Sweden´s Andreas Carlgren. Photo: Gunnar Seijbold/Government Offices

Financial aid has to be additional to earlier promises if Copenhagen is to be a success. Developing countries will not be convinced if the money comes from existing development aid budgets. The European Council on Thursday and Friday has to come up with a substantial offer.

Fredrik Reinfeldt must also have the guts to say no to Barack Obama if the US position is too weak. It would be a serious mistake to abandon the Kyoto Protocol without a better binding agreement in place.

In Copenhagen, the European Union will be in the lead. But in five years, the picture might have changed. The new government in Japan has already presented an ambitious climate target. China is moving fast forward, for example on green technologies. The same goes for South Korea and other emerging economies. With Barack Obama as President, the United States can regain the leading role in environmental policy the country had during the 1970s and 1980s.

Europe could quickly lose its pole position if there is not enough progress on new environmental measures. Unfortunately, there has been a slowing down in green policy-making during the last few years, with industry concerns over short-term competitiveness growing more influential.

The new Commission will have a key role in securing that Europe does not fall behind. Connie Hedegaard is a good choice as climate commissioner, but it is also crucial that the new climate directorate has a strong leadership. The ambitious climate targets agreed must be followed by concrete measures to preserve Europe´s credibility.

Other environmental issues are equally important. It will not be possible to find long-term solutions to climate change without adressing the loss of biodiversity. Resource and energy efficiency will climb even higher on the political agenda when conflicts over scarce resources grow stronger.

Thus, Jan Potocnik´s portfolio is as important as Connie Hedegard. The European Parliament should put tough questions to Potocnik on the agenda for the coming years.

The new high representative, Catherine Ashton, also has a key role. The European External Actions Service should have a strong green component.

Being a green world power is an advantage for the European Union, giving credibility both in the world and among its own citizens. The Copenhagen Summit will be a test for European diplomacy and for the Swedish Presidency. However, ambitious Commission proposals on environment during the next few years could be even more important for Europe´s role on the global stage.

Others on the Swedish EU Presidency: DN, Jean Quatremer, Tony Barber, Grahnlaw, se2009.eu

Sweden moves Justice and Home Affairs forward

 

When José Manuel Barroso presented the new European Commission, he noted that Swedish Member Cecilia Malmström will have the responsibility to implement the Stockholm Programme, negotiated during the Swedish EU Presidency. Barroso could have added Viviane Reding´s name, as she will take care of important dossiers such as fundamental rights. But it is true that Sweden really moved the Justice and Home Affairs agenda forward this autumn.

Swedish Justice Minister Beatrice Ask. Photo: Pawel Flato/Government Offices

Tomorrow, Minister for Justice Beatrice Ask will try to convince her colleagues to agree on the remaining open issues in the plan for the next five years. She has already given citizens´ rights a more important place than in the preceding Hague Programme. The draft Stockholm Programme includes a stronger role for the Fundamental Rights Agency, a quick accession to the convention on human rights and an action plan for human rights in relations to countries outside the EU.

There has also been progress on procedural rights for persons who are suspected of crime. After a long deadlock, Beatrice Ask has secured a decision on the right to interpretation and a roadmap for further work. Ministers will also agree an `action oriented paper´ against trafficking, although the issue of an anti-trafficking coordinator is still open.

Critics will not be satisfied, however. While police authorities will have easier access to information, data protection is weaker than Sweden initially proposed, for example in agreements with third states. The much discussed SIS II and VIS systems will be implemented as planned.

Other controversial issues include :

- Common minimum rules concerning the definition of criminal offences and sanctions, for example on terrorism and `computer crime´. 

- Mutual recognition in areas of civil law such as succession and wills and the `property consequences of the separation of couples´.

- The possibility for police in one member state to execute `certain investigative measures´ in another member state.

Still – if there is agreement tomorrow, Beatrice Ask will have achieved one of the most significant results of the Swedish Presidency, putting her own touch on the Programme regarding citizens´ rights and the fight against trafficking.

When it comes to asylum and immigration policy, the picture is different. Proposals by Swedish migration minister Tobias Billström have been changed drastically. Language on the rights of third-country citizens and on the fight against discrimination has been weakened, while stronger wording has been used on the obligations of immigrants and against illegal immigration.

This is not surprising, given the climate in the EU on migration. But it will give Swedish liberal Cecilia Malmström a hard time as the responsible Commissioner.

Others on the Stockholm Programme: Ralf Grahn, SvD, se2009.eu, se2009eu2

Ashton and Van Rompuy will have a tough start

 

The time for celebration is over. Now Herman Van Rompuy and Catherine Ashton must start preparing for their new jobs.

Catherine Ashton has a delicate balancing act to perform. The High Representative should take up her new responsibilities on 1 December, according to the Lisbon Treaty. But Ashton is facing European Parliament hearings before she is confirmed as Vice-President of the Commission.

She cannot wait for the vote. A number of urgent dossiers are already piling up on her new desk. One of them is the European External Action Service, EEAS.

When EU governments agreed guidelines for the EEAS, they left a number of controversial questions unanswered. Catherine Ashton must move quickly to gain control.

Herman Van Rompuy and Catherine Ashton face big challenges. Photo Gunnar Seijbold/Government Offices

The relationship between foreign and development policy is one such issue. During the European Development Days in October, many speakers were eager not to subordinate EU development aid programmes to short-term foreign policy priorities. Poverty reduction should remain the aim for EU financial assistance and the Commissioner for Development should be in control over programming (over the money, to put it more frankly). This view is shared by many Ministers for Development.

However, the guidelines for the EEAS state that the geographical desks should `play a leading role in the strategic decision-making´ about programming and implementation. Proposals to the College of Commissioners will be prepared jointly by the High Representative and the Commissioner for Development.

How this should work in practice must be decided before the end of the year, according to the guidelines. Catherine Ashton must move quickly to find a solution to the internal conflicts that remain. The European Parliament and many others will closely monitor the organizational structure for development programmes in the new Commission. Similar issues arise for EU Neighbourhood Policy programs.

Before April 2010, Catherine Ashton must submit her proposal for a Council decision on the organisation and functioning of the EEAS. Other difficult issues include the role of special representatives, and of EU delegations around the world. This goes especially for EU Delegations at the UN and other multilateral institutions.

At the same time, Ashton must quickly become a key player in foreign policy. Her first statement on Iran, for example, will be scrutinized in detail. To have any chance of success, she must delegate a number of tasks related to organization without losing overall control.

Hopefully, she will still have time to use the Lisbon Treaty to advance EU policy on horizontal issues such as human rights, conflict prevention, and green diplomacy. It is a tall order for someone with little experience in foreign and security policy, but Ashton should have the benefit of the doubt.

Herman Van Rompuy has a somewhat easier task. The Swedish Presidency will chair meetings until the end of the year, and Van Rompuy will be able to ease the transition of power in Belgium before taking up his new post.

However, the new President of the European Council must quickly agree a division of tasks with the upcoming Spanish Presidency. That might not be so easy. Zapatero is likely to fight for a strong Spanish role for example in the preparation of a post-Lisbon strategy.

Herman Van Rompuy must, like Ashton, devote much energy to the new organizational structure. What will be the relation between the President and the rest of the Council Secretariat, led by Pierre de Boissieu? Who will, in practice, prepare the work program of the Council and negotiate with the rotating Presidencies? My bet is on Pierre de Boissieu.

Many have asked whether Ashton and Van Rompuy were really the best two candidates Europe could muster. That is a good question.

But now, the choice has been made. Europe needs leaders who work well together and who make the European Union more than the sum of its individual parts. Ashton, Barroso and Van Rompuy deserve a fair chance.

Russia – a Challenge for the High Representative

 

Wednesday´s EU-Russia Summit will be the last major foreign policy event under the Nice Treaty. On 1 December, the new President of the Council and the new High Representative will assume their posts. Russia will be one of their main challenges.

Sweden will continue to chair Council meetings until the end of its Presidency, in accordance with conclusions from the EU Summit in December 2008. But that doesn´t mean that the two new top politicians will keep silent. They will surely have a role at the European Council 10-11 December, perhaps appearing at a joint press conference with Reinfeldt and Barroso. The real turf wars will be during the Spanish Presidency. Zapatero will not give away Spain´s six months in the spotlights so easily.

On Wednesday in Stockholm, however, Reinfeldt will run the show together with José Manuel Barroso and Javier Solana. Discussions with Russian President Dmitrij Medvedev in the `Hall of Mirrors´ at Grand Hôtel are likely to focus on climate change, energy security and trade issues. How human rights issues will be brought up is a subject for EU Foreign Ministers´ meeting tomorrow.

Relations to Russia have been difficult for every Presidency to handle. Sweden has done better than most. The Foreign Ministry did a lot behind the scenes to avoid a new Georgia conflict this summer.

True, there is anger in Moscow over Carl Bildt´s outspoken comments on the war in Georgia, and Sweden´s statements on murders of human rights activists. It took a long time for Russia to confirm the date and place for the EU-Russia Summit. But that kind of tensions is better than treating the Kremlin with silk gloves.

Of course, the EU needs Russia, not least for its energy resources. It is perhaps no coincidence that the gas pipelines Nordstream and Southstream were approved by EU Member States just before the Summit. But Russia is also dependent on the EU as its main trading partner.

During Foreign Ministers´discussions tomorrow, there will be hardliners (many from Eastern Europe) and softies (including Germany and Italy). Of course, the European Union needs a constructive dialogue with Russia. In my view, however, it would be a sign of weakness if the EU did not dare to speak up about killings of human rights activists and journalists at the meeting with Medvedev.  The same is true for the rigged regional elections and the continued human rights abuses in Chechnya.

Hopefully, Medvedev will not repeat Putin´s aggressive appearance in Stockholm 2001. Then, Putin chocked the press and his host Göran Persson by saying `If the Albanian UCK-terrorists cannot be disarmed they must be eliminated´. Putin continued: `In Macedonia, we are presently experiencing the same thing as we have experienced in Chechnya´. Fortunately, the EU used its diplomatic skills to solve the conflict in Macedonia, not the brutal strategy of the Kremlin in the Caucasus.

But even if Medvedev is more soft-spoken than Putin, that does not mean that the politics of the Kremlin has changed much, whether it comes to Chechnya or to human rights in general.

Promoting democracy and freedom of the media in Russia is a strategic task for the new EU High Representative, to be appointed on Thursday. If too little is done, the Russian model will corrupt state power also in parts of the European Union. Look at Italy.

One key to success might be to frame this work in a modern strategy for democratization and media pluralism, to be applied in all EU external relations. Anna Lindh brought up this issue during the Swedish Presidency in 2001. It might be something for the new High Representative to consider.

Others about the Swedish Presidency, EU-Russia meeting: DN, DN2, DN3, EUObserver, Jean Quatremer, Jon Worth, Le Taurillon, SvD, SvD2, SvD3, Tony Barber

Progress on Enlargement

 

The final approval of the Lisbon Treaty opens the door to the European Union again. Many obstacles to further enlargement remain, but there has been significant progress during the Swedish Presidency.

Signature of arbitration agreement Croatia-Slovenia. Photo: André Mkandawire/Swedish Government Offices

At a ceremony in Stockholm this week, the Croatian and Slovenian Prime Ministers signed an arbitration agreement on the border dispute between the two countries. Slovenia lifted its blockage of Croatia´s accession negotiations at the end of September. As a consequence, enlargement negotiations with Croatia now move forward at full speed.

The Presidency is careful not to take credit for the breakthrough, instead praising the political leadership of Croatia and Slovenia. However, behind the scenes there have been intense efforts to solve the border issue both by enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn and by the Swedish Presidency. Carl Bildt´s statement on the eve of the Presidency was carefully crafted to put pressure on both sides. Croatia´s ambassador to France acknowledged the role of the EU and the US recently in an interview with Euractiv.

This week´s border agreement is not the end of the story. While Croatia´s Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor is saying that she will send the agreement to Parliament next week, her Slovenian colleague Borut Pahor is advocating an advisory referendum before ratification. But there will be significant progress in negotiations during the coming weeks. Sweden will be able to close a large number of negotiation chapters before the end of the year.

Iceland might well accede at the same time as Croatia. The Swedish Presidency skillfully achieved an agreement already at the Foreign Ministers´ meeting in end July to ask the Commission to prepare the opinion on Iceland´s membership. Another country at the helm might not have been as motivated to navigate the difficult waters of the economic compensation from Iceland to bank customers in the UK and the Netherlands. Sweden was able to prevent this question from delaying Iceland´s accession process.

Now the European Council in December is likely to agree that Iceland should be able to start accession negotiations early next year. Whether the Icelanders in the end will vote yes to membership is another story.

There has also been progress on the membership bids of Macedonia and Serbia, while Turkey remains a difficult issue and Cyprus is a cause of big concerns for the Swedes. The `big bang´ breakthrough of the first Swedish Presidency in 2001 will not be repeated.

Ratification of the accession treaties might become more difficult next time, with all the add-ons to the Lisbon Treaty that are supposed to be annexed to the treaties, and with a possible conservative government in the UK (Tony Barber writes well about the opt-outs on his FT Brussels Blog). Friends of enlargement should try to decouple the opt-outs from the ratification of the accession treaties.

Still, enlargement could be the success story Fredrik Reinfeldt badly needs, with failure on climate approaching.

But most of the credit should go to Carl Bildt and Olli Rehn.

 

A short note on the new posts in the Lisbon Treaty: I played a small role once during discussions on a Swedish Commissioner. My experience is that nothing is decided until very late in the process. I guess this is true for the two new posts as well. While it is fun to speculate, and others might have better sources when making their assessments, personally I will wait until more first-hand information is available. Maybe we will know more by tomorrow evening, after talks at the celebrations in Berlin.

One question, though. Is Michel Barnier really going to get the internal market portfolio in the new Commission? Earlier, I thought it would be too provocative to give this post to a Frenchman (don´t get me wrong, Barnier is very skilled, but politically it seems difficult). However, Barroso´s recent appointment of Mario Monti as an independent expert on the development of the internal market looks like a compensatory measure to fence off criticism when Barnier is appointed.

Failure on Climate Financing

 

Read the conclusions, do not trust press conferences. That is good advice when it comes to understanding political decisions – in the EU as well as in domestic policy.

José Manuel Barroso and Fredrik Reinfeldt claimed success on climate after the European Council. `The difficult question of “climate financing” has been resolved and the EU’s climate package is thus complete.´, the Swedish Presidency states on its website.

The text gives another impression. Fredrik Reinfeldt had to weaken key paragraphs considerably. As a result, there is no clear commitment from the EU on financing in the run-up to Copenhagen. This will complicate tomorrow´s talks with Barack Obama, as well as negotiations with other major emitters.

The European Council agreed on the overall amount needed for 2020, including private financing through emission trading and other means. But more importantly, there was no decision on the short-term financing, crucial for a political agreement in Copenhagen.

Before the EU Summit, Sweden had proposed the following wording:

`The European Council appreciates the Commission´s estimate of an overall financing need of EUR 5-7 billion per year for the first three years following an ambitious agreement in Copenhagen and underlines that the EU in this context is ready to contribute its fair share of these costs´

This text met strong resistance from Germany, Poland and others. As a result, there was no agreement on the financing need, in contrast to what the Swedish Presidency claims on its website. The paragraph in the final conclusions is:

`Taking note of the Commission estimate that a global financing of EUR 5-7 billion per year for the first three years is needed following an ambitious agreement in Copenhagen, the European Council underlines that a figure will be determined in the light of the outcome of the Copenhagen conference.´

Der Spiegel is right in describing the outcome as a success for Angela Merkel, who did not want concrete figures decided at the Summit. The Guardian, among others, gives a good overview of the failure to reach agreement on financial commitments.

There was also no agreement on the controversial issue of `hot air´, emission allowances in the Kyoto protocol not used by countries.

What does this mean for Copenhagen?

Fredrik Reinfeldt´s adviser for climate, Lars-Erik Liljelund, rules out a legally binding agreement. `It was somewhat stupid to make Copenhagen a bigger event than it is´, he says to Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagbladet.

How wise is it then to abandon the Kyoto protocol (which does not end in 2013) without securing an alternative?

 

Briefly on other issues at the European Council:

Fredrik Reinfeldt was more successful on institutional issues. The Lisbon Treaty is almost in place, a significant achievement by the Presidency. Another positive result is the progress on guidelines for the External Action Service.

On migration, the Summit agreed wording supporting tough border controls, but did not specifically mention the Geneva convention in a significant step away from earlier EU commitments.

The Baltic Sea Strategy was endorsed, a vague, non-committal document.

If the final hurdles for the Lisbon Treaty are cleared, there will soon be a decision on the new posts. However, dark clouds still loom over the climate negotiations in Copenhagen.

Climate Financing: The 50 Billion-Euro Question

 

Words can be explosive. Especially if they imply that billions of euro will be transferred from state coffers.

So it should not come as a big surprise that the Swedish government has difficulties in finding agreement on the financing of climate adaptation measures in developing countries. EU Finance Ministers fought about the issue last Tuesday. Now, climate financing is likely to dominate the European Council on Thursday and Friday (together with discussions on the top posts in the Lisbon Treaty).

The draft conclusions for the Summit (prepared for the COREPER meeting last Wednesday) mentions both short-term and long-term costs. Two key sentences illustrate the stakes involved:

 ”The European Council appreciates the Commission´s estimate of an overall financing need of EUR 5-7 billion per year for the first three years following an ambitious agreement in Copenhagen and underlines that the EU in this context is ready to contribute its fair share of these costs”

 “The European Council considers that the overall level of the international public support required could lie in the range of EUR 22 to 50 billion per year by 2020, subject to a fair burden sharing at the global level in line with the distribution key agreed by Parties…”

Poland is refusing to agree on concrete numbers without promises that the burden sharing will to a large extent be based on GDP, not only on carbon emissions. Negotiations are further complicated by the fact that Germany is forming a new government.

Billion Euro Baby: Finance Minister Anders Borg is keeping a firm grip on climate negotiations. Photo: Pawel Flato/Government offices

Thus, the conclusions are likely to be watered down. That may come at a high price. Climate negotiations are already in crisis, with a close adviser to Fredrik Reinfeldt ruling out a legally binding agreement in Copenhagen. If the EU Summit does not mention ambitious figures on climate financing, it will be even more difficult to achieve a political deal in December that is strong enough.

There are a number of other open issues. What should happen to the `hot air´, the emission allowances not used by countries primarily in Eastern Europe? How will the new system of flexible mechanisms work in practice and how will it be controlled? What criteria should apply for the distribution of financial support to developing counties? Will climate financing be additional to current development assistance?

Agreement at the European Council is further complicated by internal conflicts in the Swedish government. `I hope the rumour is true, that Anders Borg is running the government´, former Finance Minister Pär Nuder said at a seminar about the Government Offices last week. But when it comes to conducting the EU Presidency, a strong Finance Ministry is not always a good idea.

Regarding climate, Finance Minister Anders Borg seems to lack the diplomatic skills needed to find agreement among 27 Member States. Dogmatic instructions from Stockholm are making things difficult in Brussels. Unfortunately, the Prime Minister´s office is weaker this time than in 2001, when State Secretary Lars Danielsson was able to give negotiators clear guidance.

Agreement on climate change in Copenhagen is the Swedish government´s first priority for the EU Presidency. It would have been easier to achieve if Fredrik Reinfeldt had been more active from the start. Instead, the Swedish Prime Minister already in December last year stated that it would be difficult to agree new commitments for emission reductions by developed countries. The government negotiators are accused of trying to accommodate every divergent view instead of showing leadership in the way former chief negotiator Bo Kjellén did. In the important area of `policies and measures´, Sweden has not put forward any innovative proposals.

Some of the criticism might be unjustified. The task is difficult. However, the government has made a number of strategic mistakes. Fredrik Reinfeldt might have to pay a high political price for the lack of a strong agreement in Copenhagen.

Note: The excellent Arte blog on Europe also highlights climate and the Swedish EU Presidency.

Reinfeldt´s Big Test

 

Preparing a European Council is never easy, but this time it seems extremely difficult. Few will envy Fredrik Reinfeldt, the Swedish Prime Minister. After Ireland voted yes to the Lisbon Treaty, the prospects for the EU Summit 29-30 October looked bright. Then Vaclav Klaus put forward his demands for concluding the Czech ratification process.

Yesterday, Vaclav Klaus made clear that he will not block the ratification until after the UK elections. He also backed down from demanding legal guarantees already now. However, Klaus is asking for a declaration that such guarantees will be included in the future – probably in connection with the accession treaty of Croatia.

This will be difficult for other governments to accept. Many would prefer a simple and strong message to Klaus: `F*ck off´. That is not how the EU works, however. There has been so many cases before when people making a lot of noise get a fig leaf to cover their retreat in the end. The most likely solution seems to be a declaration stating that the Charter of Fundamental Rights applies to EU institutions only, and not to issues within the competence of the Member States. Without any specific mentioning of issues related to the Second World War.

Will that be enough for Vaclav Klaus? Only the Czech President himself knows. But it is also an issue about what Member States such as Austria, Hungary and Slovakia can accept, and about the responsibility for EU leaders not to reignite old sensitive controversies. Vaclav Klaus should follow the advice John Cleese is giving to himself in Faulty Towers: `Don´t mention the war´.

Vaclav Klaus is a difficult obstacle, but there is also a positive scenario for the European Council.

If the Czech constitutional court already 27 October decides against the complaints about the Lisbon Treaty, and Klaus backs off, it might even be possible to keep to the original plan and fill the new posts at the Summit. This is very optimistic, but should not be ruled out entirely. Otherwise, the positions might be filled at an extra Summit in November, as foreseen by the Financial Times. Why not bet a euro on Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende as President of the European Council?

Climate is another nightmare for Fredrik Reinfeldt. It seems extremely complicated to reach a legally binding agreement in Copenhagen. On Tuesday, EU finance ministers will try to agree on financing, with environment ministers meeting the following day to negotiate the full EU position for Copenhagen.

Although there was progress in COREPER last Friday, sensitive issues remain, including the burden sharing of  additional financing and the future of the Clean Development Mechanism. Environment ministers will also have difficulties agreeing on how to handle the `hot air´  in the Kyoto protocol, the emission allowances not used by the participating countries.

On another issue, Reinfeldt can be more optimistic. The Swedish Presidency has been very active on the principles for the External Action Service, which will be established by the Lisbon Treaty. Although there has been differing views on inter alia the competence of the EU Commission, a compromise solution now seems close.

According to a text to be discussed by COREPER tomorrow, the controversial issue about development assistance would be solved by emphasizing the High Representative´s role as Vice-President of the EU Commission. Strategies and similar decisions of principle would be submitted to the College by the Commissioner for Development Aid, in agreement with the Vice-President, but detailed programming would be the sole responsibility of the Commissioner for Development Aid. Should this compromise satisfy Member States, the Swedish Presidency will have at least one positive result to show at the European Council.

If Reinfeldt also can overcome the resistance of Vaclav Klaus, he will be able to claim success at the Summit. But climate negotiations remain a dark cloud over the Swedish Presidency.